The waters of the Brahmaputra, or Yarlung Tsangpo as it is known in Tibet, have always been a lifeline for millions. Yet, they are now becoming a flashpoint in the geopolitical tensions between India and China. With Beijing’s ambitious plans to construct a colossal $137 billion hydropower project in Medog County, the stakes for South Asia’s environmental and water security have reached unprecedented heights.
China’s proposed dam, designed to harness the staggering 2,000-meter drop of the Brahmaputra’s flow, promises to generate 60,000 MW of power—enough to light up entire nations. However, for India and Bangladesh, this “green project” risks becoming a poisoned chalice. The environmental consequences and geopolitical implications could ripple far downstream, impacting millions who depend on the river for their livelihoods.
Tibet: The Source of South Asia’s Lifelines
Tibet’s rivers nourish some of the world’s most populous regions, yet its fragile ecosystem is under constant strain from deforestation, soil erosion, and rampant economic activities spurred by China’s Western Development Strategy. The environmental degradation in areas like the Gyama Valley, rich in polymetallic deposits, has already led to concerns over heavy metal contamination in river systems. The potential for similar issues to escalate with the construction of the dam is a grim reminder of the region’s delicate ecological balance.
A History of Unequal Cooperation
India’s attempts at water diplomacy with China have often fallen short. A transactional approach—such as paying annually for hydrological data from Tibet—has done little to build trust. Historical standoffs, such as the Doklam crisis in 2017, have further strained relations, leaving India at a disadvantage in negotiating transboundary water management. Meanwhile, China’s unilateral actions, including withholding hydrological data from India while sharing it with Bangladesh, underline its strategic leverage over regional water resources.
Environmental and Seismic Risks
The Himalayan region’s geodynamic activity adds another layer of complexity. The 2008 Sichuan earthquake, linked to the Zipingpu Dam, serves as a stark warning of the seismic risks associated with large-scale dam construction. The recent earthquake near Shigatse in Tibet is yet another reminder of the potential hazards. These risks, coupled with the broader environmental impact of dam-building, could have catastrophic consequences for the entire Brahmaputra basin.
Learning from Global Examples
The history of transboundary river cooperation offers valuable lessons. Initiatives like the Mekong River Commission and the Great Lakes Agreement demonstrate the importance of trust-building and collaborative frameworks. Basin-level approaches that prioritize livelihoods and environmental sustainability could provide a roadmap for the Brahmaputra’s riparian nations. India, China, and Bangladesh must consider adopting similar strategies to shift from a conflict-driven narrative to one of shared responsibility.
The Path Forward
India’s response to China’s hydropower ambitions must be multifaceted. Strengthening institutional mechanisms, fostering regional cooperation, and investing in sustainable water management are critical steps. Moreover, India must advocate for a basin-wide approach that balances development with ecological preservation, ensuring that the voices of those living downstream are heard.
As the Brahmaputra continues its journey from the Tibetan plateau to the Bay of Bengal, it carries with it the hopes and challenges of millions. The question remains: can India and China navigate their differences to chart a course of cooperation, or will the river’s potential be overshadowed by conflict? The answer will shape the future of South Asia’s water security and regional stability.