Former U.S. President Donald Trump has long been a figure who captivates global attention with his unpredictable decisions. From his polarizing political stances to his unconventional diplomatic moves, Trump’s actions rarely fail to spark widespread discussion. The latest episode to make headlines revolves around Trump’s decision to extend invitations to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian industrialist Mukesh Ambani, while notably excluding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from his upcoming inauguration ceremony. The event in question is Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, when he will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. This surprising omission has sent ripples through political circles, sparking debates about the implications for Modi’s global stature and the political narrative in India.
For a leader like Modi, who has worked diligently to build a global persona as a strong, respected figure, this exclusion is not a trivial matter. Modi has worked hard to forge ties with Trump, most notably through the 2019 "Howdy Modi" event in Houston, which saw over 50,000 Indian-Americans gather in support of both leaders. Modi’s endorsement of Trump during the event—“Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar” (This time, a Trump government)—was a rare and powerful gesture of support from a global leader. Therefore, Trump’s exclusion of Modi from such an important occasion raises critical questions: Is this a diplomatic snub, or is there a deeper, more strategic reasoning behind this move?
A Diplomatic Snub or Pragmatic Prioritization?
At the heart of this discussion lies the question of Trump’s diplomatic style. Known for his transactional approach, Trump has often prioritized personal relationships and short-term strategic interests over conventional diplomatic practices. His interactions with global leaders are often framed by immediate gains and practical outcomes rather than long-standing traditions or allegiances.
"Trump views diplomacy as a means to achieve personal or national advantage, rather than following established diplomatic protocols," remarked political analyst David Gergen. "His focus on economic and trade deals often trumps (no pun intended) any notions of global alliances."
In this light, Trump’s decision to invite Xi Jinping could be seen as an effort to re-engage China amidst the ongoing trade war and geopolitical tensions. The U.S. and China have been locked in a battle over trade, technology, and global influence for years, with both nations trying to assert dominance on the world stage. Trump’s invitation to Xi may signal a willingness to re-establish dialogue, signaling a thaw in relations.
Meanwhile, the invitation to Mukesh Ambani—one of the wealthiest businessmen in India—raises questions about Trump’s focus on India’s business elite. Ambani’s influence in global markets, particularly in the fields of energy and telecommunications, makes him a strategic player in U.S.-India relations. For Trump, inviting Ambani could be seen as an attempt to strengthen economic ties with India through its business community, bypassing the need for direct engagement with political leadership.
In this context, Modi’s exclusion may not necessarily be a deliberate snub, but rather a pragmatic move that aligns with Trump’s approach to diplomacy. However, optics matter in politics, and for Modi’s supporters and critics alike, the decision raises eyebrows.
Modi’s Supporters: A Sense of Betrayal
For Modi’s supporters, the exclusion of the Indian Prime Minister from such an important occasion may feel like a betrayal. Many Indians who view Modi as a strong, assertive global leader have been quick to question Trump’s motivations. After all, Modi worked tirelessly to bolster Trump’s image during his presidency, often appearing in joint events and making efforts to show support for the U.S. president’s agenda.
The "Howdy Modi" event in 2019 was a key moment in their relationship. Modi’s enthusiastic endorsement of Trump—declaring, "Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar"—was a rallying cry for Trump’s reelection bid. The event itself, held before a massive crowd of over 50,000 Indian-Americans, was seen as a display of Indo-American unity. For many, Modi’s willingness to publicly support Trump at such a high-profile event was viewed as a gesture of goodwill and a symbol of the growing Indo-U.S. relationship.
Therefore, the lack of an invitation to Modi for Trump’s inauguration may be interpreted as a sharp departure from the warmth that once defined their relationship. Indian public opinion is often highly sensitive to such gestures, and this omission could be perceived as a public slight. "This is a slap in the face for Modi’s supporters," remarked political commentator Rahul Verma. "It’s hard to ignore the optics of this decision, given Modi’s previous efforts to elevate Trump on the world stage."
The India-China Dynamic: A Thorny Issue
An additional layer to this controversy is the ever-present tension between India and China. The two nations share a complex and often fraught relationship, with a history of border disputes, economic rivalry, and strategic differences. In recent years, the relationship between India and China has become more strained, especially in light of border skirmishes in Ladakh and the broader geopolitical competition between the two Asian giants.
Given these tensions, Trump’s decision to invite Xi while leaving Modi out could be interpreted as a message of prioritizing China’s strategic importance. For Modi’s supporters, this decision raises questions about India’s position in the U.S.’s global calculus. Is the U.S. signaling a preference for China over India? Does this diminish India’s global clout and influence?
For many in India, Trump’s invitation to Xi may be seen as a diplomatic rebuke, highlighting the complexities of Indo-U.S. relations in the current geopolitical climate. "The message here is clear: India is not the priority, China is," said foreign policy expert Sanjay Kumar. "Modi’s exclusion only adds fuel to the fire of India’s frustrations with its position on the world stage."
Managing Perceptions: Modi’s Robust Image
Despite the controversy, Modi’s global image remains resilient. Domestically, his government has focused on initiatives like "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India), which aims to strengthen India’s economy and reduce dependence on foreign imports. His policies, such as the push for economic reforms and national security measures, have helped cultivate a loyal voter base that sees him as a leader with a clear vision for India’s future.
Internationally, Modi has built strong relationships with leaders like U.S. President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and even Chinese President Xi Jinping in earlier years. These relationships demonstrate Modi’s diplomatic agility and his ability to foster strategic alliances across the world. Modi’s leadership has also been characterized by his ability to position India as a key player in global geopolitics.
To some extent, Modi’s ability to manage perceptions will be crucial in weathering this diplomatic storm. His supporters are likely to see the exclusion as an isolated incident, one that does not define his global standing. "This is just a minor blip," said political strategist Kiran Sharma. "Modi’s image as a global leader remains intact. He will continue to steer India’s foreign policy with confidence."
Trump’s Unpredictability: A Double-Edged Sword
Trump’s unpredictability is both a strength and a weakness. His decisions often reflect immediate personal or national interests rather than long-term diplomatic considerations. The exclusion of Modi may be part of his personal strategy, but it’s important to note that U.S.-India relations have historically transcended individual leaders.
"Trump’s approach to diplomacy is often driven by his immediate needs, not by long-term relationships," said political analyst Sheila Kaul. "In the grand scheme of things, Modi’s exclusion may not matter as much as people think."
Implications for Modi’s Public Image
While the exclusion could momentarily affect Modi’s image, it is unlikely to have lasting consequences. His supporters are likely to dismiss the incident as an outlier in the larger context of Indo-U.S. relations. Modi’s government can continue to project strength through global summits, partnerships, and diplomatic outreach.
A Momentary Ripple, Not a Tidal Wave
Trump’s decision not to invite Modi to his January 2025 inauguration is indeed a talking point. However, its impact on Modi’s image is likely to be short-lived. While the optics may raise questions about U.S. priorities and the India-China dynamic, Modi’s strong domestic standing and proven diplomatic track record provide a buffer against such controversies. In the end, the incident serves as a reminder that even symbolic gestures can carry significant weight in the complex world of international relations.