Modi’s bid to Broker a Peace Deal Between Russia and Ukraine

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 in a bid to thwart the latter's inclusion in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Before Russia launched its offensive, it had warned Ukraine not to take membership in the planet’s strongest military alliance. What was the provocation to Russia? Had Ukraine joined NATO, it would have obliterated the buffer between Russia and NATO since the US-led alliance would knock at the doorsteps of Russia’s territory. 

To the question why ‘Russia attacked Ukraine’, a plausible explanation is a security dilemma. Russia felt threatened with the supposed proximity of NATO post-Ukraine’s inclusion. Security dilemma combined with interstate anarchy produces, among other things, ‘uncertainty’ and ‘fear.’ Russia may not have seen it as an immediate threat to its national security, but events in international politics are too unpredictable. The presence of anarchy in international politics never allows states to take a breather from their efforts to strengthen their security architecture. That a major power like Russia felt threatened with a smaller power joining a military organization explains the preventive war against Ukraine. Putin may have imagined a future in which Russia would face an existential threat. That is what propelled Putin to choose war instead of diplomacy.

At the heart of Russia’s apprehension is its blow-hot, blow-cold relations with the United States. Both nations have experienced many troughs and crests in their relations since the onset of the Cold War. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest they came to fighting a hot war. That terrible crisis threatened a nuclear war had the situation escalated beyond diplomatic talks. Because of their capability of mutually assured destruction (MAD), both nations know what is at stake in case they engage in a full-blown war. That is the reason Russia did not want to yield an inch of strategic ground to the US that may threaten its territorial security.

Intractability of War

Two and a half years have passed since the onset of the Russia and Ukraine war; there is no peace in sight. Multiple peacemaking efforts have failed by a diversity of actors. The Black Sea Grain Initiative was one such effort, which was terminated by Russia in July 2023. This was a United Nations-brokered trilateral agreement between Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine to supply food and fertilizer via the Black Sea. Another one is by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which sought to preclude the escalation of war to a nuclear threshold through its timely intervention for nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzia power plant. Yet another agenda-driven peace gesture took place between Ukraine and Russia a week ago when they exchanged prisoners of war. All these efforts, however, yielded no real breakthrough in bringing the parties closer to signing a ceasefire deal. Earlier in August, Ukraine launched a major offensive in Russia’s Kursk region in a bid to create a buffer. This was the first ground invasion of Russia since World War II. In response, Russia pocketed significant gains in Ukraine’s two cities—Pokrovsk and Niu-York—both of which are important logistics hubs.

Modi’s Message of Peace

Experts see Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the beleaguered nation as a diplomatic victory for Ukraine. It is because of the fact that India is a major military and economic partner of Russia. India has maintained a strategic silence over the war for too long only because of its close ties with Russia. India’s External Minster S. Jaishankar had, in a rather distasteful manner, termed it “Europe’s War."  From maintaining a safe distance, India’s recent peace-making efforts have caught the attention of the world. The European powers have incessantly chided India for continuing the business as usual with the belligerent Russia. However, Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine, where he categorically said that he had taken sides with 'peace,’ has raised hopes among the world leaders. Immediately after Modi’s return to India, US President Joseph Biden called him and appreciated his ‘message of peace’ and the aid provided to Ukraine.

While it is still early to say whether India will initiate serious peace-making efforts or Modi’s peace overtures will remain confined to the realm of symbolism, it is certain that the visit has rekindled the hopes for peace in the region. India’s historical ties with Russia nonetheless would make it appear partial to Moscow. For any serious peace efforts, India first has to recast itself into an unbiased arbiter. If at all it is on the side of peace, for India, navigating through the tricky waters poses a great challenge in the days to come. 

Written By: Dr. Md Intekhab Alam Khan
Peace and Conflict Scholar
&College Academic Officer
Ajmal Group of Institutions
Ajmal Foundation, Hojai (Assam)